Budget Planning (Global)

A budget is not a fixed number — it is a decision tool: where you place bets and when you pull back. The leader must know total spend, ROI per channel, what to increase, and what to cut. Run 10-reverse-kpi-global first to derive the minimum budget from the revenue target before allocating anything.

Information gathering

Read .agents/product-marketing-context-global.md, the marketing plan, and the previous period's report if available. If missing, ask up to 4 questions:

1. Total budget and planning period? How much, for a month, a quarter, or a year (USD)?
2. Revenue target for the period? Needed to compute marketing as a percent of revenue and the minimum viable budget.
3. Active channels and last period's ROI? Meta / TikTok / Google / email + SMS / affiliates / agency — which has the best ROAS or CPA?
4. Any large campaign needing a reserve? Launch, Black Friday / Cyber Monday, or another seasonal peak.

Principles

1. Budget follows performance. Do not stay rigid to the opening plan. Channels that work get more; channels that do not get cut.
2. Always hold 10-15% in reserve. Never allocate everything on day one. The reserve covers unexpected opportunities and incidents.
3. Every dollar has a measurable KPI. "Branding you cannot measure" is not an acceptable line item.
4. Do not spread evenly. Concentrate on the best-performing channel. New channels get a minimum test allocation (10-15%) first.
5. Plan backwards from revenue, not from channels. The budget is the output of a revenue equation, not an arbitrary number.
6. Do not divide the annual budget evenly across quarters. Median Meta CPM in Q4 runs roughly 26% above Q1 (references/benchmarks-global.md), so identical monthly spend buys materially less reach in Q4. Either front-load acquisition into cheap Q1 months or explicitly reserve a larger Q4 allocation for the same volume.

Workflow

1. Choose the budget-setting method

Method	How it works	Strength	Weakness
Percent of revenue	Budget = X% of expected revenue	Simple	Ignores growth stage
Backwards from targets (recommended)	Set revenue > derive CAC/CPL > derive spend	Logical, evidence-based	Needs historical CAC/CPL
Competitive benchmark	Match category spend norms	Avoids under-investment	Ignores your own conditions

Seven-step backwards calculation (full detail in 10-reverse-kpi-global):

1. Target revenue
2. / AOV                        = orders needed
3. / close rate (30-50%)        = hot leads needed
4. / nurture CVR (50-60%)       = warm leads needed
5. / lead capture CVR (20-40%)  = total reach needed
6. total leads x CPL            = minimum ad budget
7. + content + tools + agency   = total marketing budget

Build 3 scenarios: Conservative (CVR below category median, CPL above), Base case (at median), Optimistic (post-optimization). Plan against Base; prepare cashflow against Conservative.

2. Allocate by bucket

Bucket	Suggested share	Purpose
Paid ads (performance)	50-65%	Meta, TikTok, Google, retargeting
Content production	10-15%	Video, design, copywriting
Creators / UGC / affiliates	5-10%	Social proof, third-party reach
Agency / freelancers	Per scope	If used
Tools / software	2-5%	Ad tools, design, email/CRM, analytics
Campaign reserve	10-15%	Opportunities and incidents — NOT pre-allocated

3. Allocate by channel

Starting split (adjust to your category and your own data):

Channel	Share of ad budget	Objective	Expected CPA / ROAS
Meta Ads (Facebook + Instagram)	45-60%	Lead / purchase
TikTok Ads	15-20%	Awareness / lead
Google Search + Shopping	15-25%	High-intent capture
Email + SMS (Klaviyo, Mailchimp, Attentive)	5-10%	Retention, nurture, retargeting
New channel (test)	10-15%	Validate

For B2B, shift toward LinkedIn and Search — LinkedIn CPM runs $30-100+, so plan a higher CPL and a longer payback window. Allocation logic: channels with strong ROAS or CPA get a larger share; new channels get the minimum test allocation first; never divide evenly.

4. Split by funnel and by test vs scale

Standard performance split inside each channel:

Purpose	Share	Note
Testing (new creative + audiences)	30%	Always keep testing — creative fatigue arrives fast
Scale (confirmed winners)	50%	Only scale campaigns with winning data
Retargeting	15%	Warm audience — cheapest CPA in the funnel
Lookalike / similar audiences	5%	Expansion from converter seeds

By funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness), MOFU (lead/nurture), BOFU (conversion/retargeting). The ratio depends on stage: a launch skews TOFU, a mature program skews BOFU and retention.

5. Allocate by campaign and month

Campaign	Month	Budget (USD)	Objective	KPI
Always-on (retargeting + nurture)	Full period
Campaign A (launch or seasonal)
Testing budget	Full period		New channels or angles
Reserve	—	10-15%

Seasonality overlay before locking monthly numbers:

Period	Media cost vs Q1	Planning implication
January	~-21% below Q1 average	Cheapest acquisition window — stock budget here if cashflow allows
Q2-Q3	Rising	Normal operating cadence, build audiences for Q4
October	~+10%	Start of the expensive window
November	~+27% (peak)	Reserve extra budget or accept lower volume
Q4 average	~+26% above Q1	Do not plan Q4 at Q1 unit costs

In US election years, political spend displaces commercial inventory and adds roughly 20-40% to CPM in the last 30 days before the vote — build that into Q4 plans for US-targeted campaigns.

6. Scale-up and stop-loss rules

Increase budget when (BOTH conditions hold):

• ROAS above 1.5x target for 7+ consecutive days, OR CPA at or below 70% of target with sufficient volume
• Audience not yet saturated (frequency below 2.5)
• Increment: +20-30% per step, never a sudden doubling

Cut or pause when (stop-loss):

Condition	Action
ROAS below break-even for 14 days after enough data (break-even on contribution margin before ads, not gross margin)	Cut the channel or campaign, move budget to what works
CPA above 1.5x target for 7 days	Change creative or audience
CPA above 3.0x target once spend >= 3x target CPA (below that, not enough data; house heuristic ladder in 03-performance-eval-global)	Propose a pause (rule 7 draft block, named approver); replace creative or audience before restarting
Frequency above 4 (urgent tier; heuristic)	Audience saturation — stop scaling, refresh creative or expand audience; frequency alone never pauses an ad set
Spend above 110% of the monthly plan	Cap daily budgets, review the allocation

Weekly CPA review rule (expressed relative to your own target, since absolute CPA varies 3-5x between regions and industries):

CPA vs target	Frequency	Verdict
<= 1.0x target	<= 2.5	WIN — scale +20-30%
1.0-1.5x target	<= 2.5	Watch — monitor
> 1.5x target, under 7 days	any	Watch — keep monitoring, no verdict yet
> 1.5x target for 7 days	any	Optimize — change creative or audience
> 3.0x target (spend >= 3x target CPA)	any	Propose a pause through rule 7 (draft block, named approver)

Step 0: spend below 3x target CPA = not enough data, no verdict. Source: house heuristic ladder in 03-performance-eval-global (heuristic).

Set the target itself using references/benchmarks-global.md for your region and industry, not a global average. Never increase budget while CPA is deteriorating — fix creative or tracking first.

7. Tracker and review cadence

Month	Planned budget	Actual spend	Variance	ROAS / ROI	Note
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Quarter total

Cadence	Work	Output
Weekly	Review CPA and ROAS per channel, apply the step-6 decision rules	Immediate adjustment when a threshold trips
Monthly	Review the full allocation, reconcile plan vs actual	Rebalance for next month
Quarterly	Review overall allocation strategy and LTV:CAC	Strategy adjustment

Unit economics health — LTV:CAC:

Ratio	Meaning	Action
< 1:1	Losing money on every customer	Stop scaling, fix product or price
1:1 to 3:1	Break-even to viable	Optimize conversion, raise AOV
> 3:1	Healthy	Begin scaling
> 5:1	Strong	Increase ad budget aggressively

Output structure

File name: budget-plan-[brand-name]-[YYYYMMDD].md — contains: I. Budget overview (total, revenue target, marketing as % of revenue, period) · II. Bucket allocation · III. Channel allocation · IV. Test vs scale split · V. Campaign and monthly allocation with seasonality overlay · VI. Decision rules and stop-loss thresholds · VII. Plan-vs-actual tracker · VIII. Review cadence.

Related skills

• 10-reverse-kpi-global: derive the minimum budget from the revenue target — run before allocating.
• 00-marketing-plan-global: the budget plan is the detailed version of the plan's budget section.
• 54-media-plan-global: turn the ad budget into a concrete campaign and ad-set level media plan.
• 21-ads-audit-global: audit a channel that repeatedly trips the stop-loss thresholds.
• 07-marketing-report-global: budget reconciliation inside the monthly report.

Quality checklist

• Budget derived backwards from the revenue target, with 3 scenarios
• All 3 allocation layers present: bucket > channel > campaign/month
• Test vs scale split explicit (testing 30 / scale 50 / retargeting 15 / lookalike 5)
• 10-15% reserve held back, not pre-allocated
• Scale-up and stop-loss thresholds use concrete numbers (ROAS, CPA vs target, frequency, days)
• New channels receive only a 10-15% test allocation
• Every budget line has a measurable KPI attached
• Monthly plan accounts for Q4 media inflation rather than dividing the year evenly
• Plan-vs-actual tracker exists by month
• Weekly, monthly, and quarterly review cadence with defined outputs
• LTV:CAC checked before any scale decision